No. 5 Michigan State, which has won 10 in a row, visits No. 16 Wisconsin tonight (Feb. 2, 9 p.m., ESPN) as 2-point underdogs. The home teams is 9-2 in the last 11 in this series, and that trend will hold true tonight, as the Badgers are the pick here.

Wisconsin's home court advantage is one of the strongest in the nation. The Badgers have already beaten Ohio State and Purdue at home and I expect them to play huge tonight against the Big Ten's top team on national TV. The Spartans are due to lose. I don't have any scientific formula to back that up, but their last two road wins were by one point in Minnesota and Michigan, two teams that are inferior to Wisconsin. The Badgers lost by seven to Michigan State in a low-scoring early January game, 54-47, and I expect the same type of game tonight, but with Badgers getting the win. They will stifle Michigan State with their strong defense (6th in the nation in points allowed per game) and control the pace of this game, supplying just enough offense to pull out the win late.

Wisconsin 61, Michigan 55